welcome to martha igene blog: April 2020

Apr 30, 2020

Coronavirus: Japan's low testing rate raises questions

Japan's relatively low rate of virus testing raises questions about how it has tackled the pandemic.

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Training AI 'to translate mum's phone messages'

How African researchers are using the continent's languages to help spur innovation in Artificial Intelligence.

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Staging a 'socially distanced' boxing match

Inside the Nicaraguan boxing event that caught the world's attention during the pandemic.

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Coronavirus: Why the fashion industry faces an 'existential crisis'

"No-one wants to buy clothes to sit at home in," as Next's chief executive Simon Wolfson puts it.

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Coronavirus: Why so many US nurses are out of work

At a time when many healthcare workers are risking their lives, some face pay cuts and job loss.

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How will airlines get flying again?

When passenger planes start flying again, the world of air travel will be very different.

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GOP senator gives activists grim 2020 assessment amid fears over holding Senate - CNN

GOP senator gives activists grim 2020 assessment amid fears over holding Senate CNN
GOP faces pressure to get tougher with Trump | TheHill The Hill
Coronavirus stimulus: Mitch McConnell is gaslighting Democrats in the debate Vox.com
The Coming GOP Spending Split The Wall Street Journal
How Democrats can help Biden make the sale | TheHill The Hill
View Full Coverage on Google News

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Big banks temporarily shut out of small business loan portal, Treasury and SBA announce - CNBC

Big banks temporarily shut out of small business loan portal, Treasury and SBA announce CNBC
Mnuchin Now Says All PPP Loan Recipients Will Face Audits pymnts.com
Many US restaurants ‘highly likely’ to return small business aid Financial Times
Congress was wrong to leave PPP disbursement up to banks American Banker
Paycheck Protection Program replenished, but still plenty of loopholes CBS News
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Assassin’s Creed Valhalla is Assassin’s Creed with vikings - The Verge

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Kristin Cavallari was 'blindsided' by Jay Cutler's divorce filing - Daily Mail

Kristin Cavallari was 'blindsided' by Jay Cutler's divorce filing Daily Mail
Kristin Cavallari accused Jay Cutler of 'marital misconduct' — but what does that mean? Jimmys Post
Kristin Cavallari Files For Divorce From Jay Cutler | TMZ TMZ
Jay Cutler Joining NFL Broadcast Booth Seems Like a Longshot The Big Lead
Kristin Cavallari Makes Bombshell Claims About Jay Cutler Marriage E! NEWS
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New NCAA Football Game Unlikely As NCAA Working Group Deems Group Licenses “Unworkable in College Athletics� - Eleven Warriors

New NCAA Football Game Unlikely As NCAA Working Group Deems Group Licenses “Unworkable in College Athletics� Eleven Warriors
NCAA group supports player endorsement plan ESPN
NCAA takes biggest step yet toward allowing college athletes to be compensated for name, image and likeness Yahoo Sports
Val Ackerman: NCAA Football Video Game Return 'Unworkable' Amid New Image Rules Bleacher Report
Does NCAA decision about athlete earnings mean a 'new era' for college sports? PBS NewsHour
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10-team MLB divisions? Here's how 2020 season played out in simulation of potential realignment - CBS Sports

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Despite Unleashing COVID-19, Expert Predicts China Could Emerge from Pandemic with Even Stronger Hold on Other Nations

Tensions between the US and China are growing, fueled by COVID-19 and accusations of dishonesty. One result is Americans are suing Beijing, seeking to hold it accountable for the worldwide pandemic. Those efforts could backfire, however, such that China not only evades consequences but potentially benefits from the pandemic.

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US 'hasn't seen' North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently, Mike Pompeo

The US secretary of state's comments come after speculation the North Korean leader might be ill.

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New York City Mayor de Blasio singles out the city's Jewish community for flouting coronavirus rules and said cops will start arresting people gathered in large groups

Though some members of the Hasidic community have disregarded lockdown rules, New York's large Jewish population has followed coronavirus measures.

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The US is 'slightly' past its first peak, but expert says the pandemic is far from over

Dr. Tom Inglesby said some states are experiencing a decline in cases, while half of the country is still seeing a rise in daily numbers.

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Coronavirus: What African countries are doing to help people to eat amid the lockdowns

What African countries are doing to help people to eat amid the lockdowns.

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'A drug can block this virus': Fauci hails Covid-19 treatment breakthrough

Positive data from the NIAID trial would be a landmark in the race to find a coronavirus treatment.

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Religious freedom watchdog pitches adding India to blacklist

The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom is urging that the State Department add India to its list of nations with uniquely poor records on protecting freedom to worship — while proposing to remove Sudan and Uzbekistan from that list. The bipartisan commission, created in 1998 by Congress to make policy recommendations about global religious freedom, proposed designating India as a “country of particular concern” in the annual report it released Tuesday. President Donald Trump declined to criticize the citizenship measure during his February visit to India, where his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi was punctuated by skirmishes between Hindus and Muslims.

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To Confront China After Coronavirus, We Must See the Bigger Picture

NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE I n a popular movie two decades ago, hard-eyed criminals released into Sydney a woman infected with a virus, knowing that unsuspecting Australians would catch the highly contagious disease and, traveling on, unwittingly spread death across a hundred homelands. This past winter, the hard-eyed leaders of China did worse. They allowed not one, but thousands of infected to leave China and enter an unsuspecting world, a world lulled by Beijing. The crucial question is: Why?“China caused an enormous amount of pain [and] loss of life . . . by not sharing the information they had,” Secretary of State Pompeo said on April 23. America is angry, he added, and while much remains to be known, China “will pay a price.”No subpoenas, no oversight committees, no tell-all books will expose President Xi’s calculations as the novel coronavirus spread inside China. The unelected of Beijing guard well their secret debates. The CCP knows the virtues of opacity, of letting uncertainty, complacency, and wishful thinking paralyze the West. Exploiting these has been its way.In 2018, a major Trump-administration speech called CCP misdeeds to task. Some, including, notably, Japan’s prime minister, applauded. But many nations looked toward their feet, too reluctant, too sophisticated, perhaps too intimidated to bestir. Staggering COVID-19 losses may yet remind the world of the dangers of drift as great powers go astray.Today’s American, European, Japanese, and Asian policymakers, like those of centuries past, bear the burdens of judgment. Uncertainty has ever been the statesman’s curse. America’s famed diplomat, former secretary of state Henry Kissinger, has written, “Nations learn only by experience, they ‘know’ only when it is too late to act. But statesmen must act as if their intuition were already experience. . . .”A reassessment of Xi and the CCP looms. From their actions and practices, from assessments of their motives and apparent long-term aims, today’s statesmen, like their forebears, must judge future risks and craft the surest course ahead. These are early days, but the picture of Beijing presented so far is troubling.Even before the virus spread in Wuhan, Xi brooded over a worrying hand. The CCP could not intimidate prolonged protests on the streets of freedom-loving Hong Kong. And the Party’s oppression there, in determined violation of treaty commitments, spurred voters in Taiwan to rebuff Beijing’s hopes for a more amenable regime in Taipei. The world was finally awakening to Xi’s increasingly autocratic surveillance state, his harsh repression of Uighur Muslims, and his predatory Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China’s economy, essential to Xi’s hold on power, had stumbled, in part because of the Trump administration’s move to counter China’s unfair, neo-mercantilist practices and to condemn their grim geopolitical implications. Worse yet, America’s markets hummed, raising reelection hopes within the Trump administration, which had also surpassed modern predecessors in challenging China. Rumors of Party dissatisfaction with Xi seeped out.COVID-19’s outbreak in Wuhan further darkened Xi’s prospects. As long as the virus raged primarily inside China -- derailing only her economy, stigmatizing only her government -- his troubles would soar. All the while, the world predictably would have leapt ahead, taking Chinese customers, stealing China’s long-sought glory.The disease’s spread to Berlin and Paris, New York and Tokyo, improved Xi’s prospects, at least in the near term. Pandemic diverted foreign eyes from Hong Kong’s and the Uighurs’ plight. Desperate needs rendered disease-weakened nations more susceptible to China’s goods and BRI’s short-term appeal. Asian states, wary of Beijing, had new cause to doubt the commitment of a pandemic-preoccupied Washington, while a weakened economy and vastly increased debts would likely constrain future U.S. defense spending, essential to Asian security. An unpredictable element had entered into America’s 2020 election.As events unfolded, might Xi have recognized that COVID-19’s leap into the wider world promised such political and geopolitical gains? Some say a desire to protect itself first fed a CCP cover-up, as if putting this before the health of innocents were not bad enough. But were CCP leaders blind, as days passed, to other benefits? It is the Chinese way, the noted French Sinologist François Jullien has written, to exploit the potential inherent in unfolding situations. CCP leaders still study China’s legendary strategist, Sun Tzu, who advised centuries ago that if, “in the midst of difficulties, we are always ready to seize an advantage, we may extricate ourselves from misfortune.”As the CCP realized the imminent disaster COVID-19 posed inside China, Xi suppressed the world’s appreciation of its dangers. By sometime in December, Chinese authorities had learned that a novel, highly infectious coronavirus similar to deadly SARS was on the loose. Yet for weeks PRC authorities, including China’ National Health Commission, suppressed inquiries and, directly or through the WHO, misled the world about the risks. When Chinese authorities finally acknowledged human-to-human transmission, the CCP took steps to isolate Wuhan from other parts of China, but continued to permit international travel. After the U.S. on January 31, and later Australia, restricted travelers from China, Beijing’s spokesmen, artful and indignant, rose to denounce such acts as ill-founded and ill-intentioned.For days, even weeks, after the CCP first knew of the danger, Chinese authorities and customs officers let tens of thousands of travelers, infected among them, leave China and enter an unwary world. In late January, China extended Lunar New Year celebrations, inviting greater international travel. PRC border guards stamped more exit papers. When America restricted such travelers, Beijing allowed more to leave for less cautious lands.Then, as pandemic gripped the world, the CCP brazenly blamed America for COVID-19. Xi once more preened over his authoritarian “China model’s” efficiencies, now cauterizing troubles he denies having caused. In Europe, Beijing postured as a savior offering needed medical supplies -- albeit that its sales favored states where it sought geopolitical gains, often bore high prices, included defective products that could undermine defenses, and drew on CCP surpluses bolstered by January purchases of world supplies at pre-pandemic prices. In Southeast Asia, Beijing proved “relentless in exploiting the pandemic,” a respected, former high-level Filipino bemoans, as it pushed its “illegal and expansive” territorial claims. Inside China, the Party seized the moment to round up leaders of Hong Kong’s democracy movement and reassert unilateral efforts to curtail the city’s special, self-governing status.Even after the virus began to spread inside China, events might have taken a different course. Many had once hoped for better from CCP leaders. Dreams of a mellowing CCP had floated widely among academics and policy elites, perhaps buoyed by the way such illusions avoided, rather than imposed, hard choices. Some yet hold to such views. The benign CCP of their reveries would have alerted others promptly as the novel virus’s dangers became known, shared information, welcomed foreign scientists, ceased reckless practices, and guarded against the pandemic’s spread.Indeed, under different leadership, China could have followed such a path. Traditions of humane governance, venerable and Confucian, are not alien to that land. China’s ancient text, the Tao-te Ching, favors just such a response:> A great nation is like a man:> > When he makes a mistake, he realizes it.> > Having realized, he admits it.> > Having admitted it, he corrects it.> > He considers those who point out his faults> > As his most benevolent teachers.The learned will debate how much such leadership would have eased the wider world’s suffering. Metrics and estimates will vary, but the consensus will be clear enough: The harm would have decreased manyfold.Such openness and grace have not been Xi’s way. As he built up islets in the South China Sea, he promised never to militarize them, then dishonored his promise, disregarded international rulings, and dispatched ships in packs to intimidate neighboring states and expand Beijing’s writ. Pledging to protect intellectual property, he enabled ongoing theft and coercion, ineluctably undermining industries of the advanced democracies, and then pressed forward on China’s newly gained advantages. His BRI professes to aid, then exploits poor countries’ weaknesses. Citing the betterment of all in the cause of greater China, he has imprisoned Uighurs, undermined Tibetan culture, and threatened the peaceful regional order that had enabled China’s rise. He violates treaty commitments to curb Hong Kong’s freedoms. Behind an anti-corruption façade, his prosecutors ruined scores of his rivals, as he consolidated and extended his personal powers. These wrongs he continues still. Xi’s are not the ways of grace and remorse.An angry narrative drives this man. Under his hand, the CCP highlights Chinese suffering and humiliation roughly a century ago under Western and Japanese imperialists, while eliding the democratic world’s helping hand and Japan’s benign democracy over four generations since. He slides past the Chinese millions massacred in the intervening decades by the CCP and Mao -- China’s legendary leader who spread cruelty and death as he judged useful. In imitation of Mao, Xi has issued his own “little red book” of wisdom. Mao’s iconic image looms over Tiananmen still. Coveting Mao’s autocratic power, Xi strove and won it; now he dare not let it go.The bitter recall of ancient Chinese glories; resentment of past humiliations; insecurity bred by corruption and illegitimacy; disdain, even hatred of America’s easy ways -- these are the pathogens coursing through Xi’s circle. A fever for Chinese primacy burns among them. For a time, they might pander to a Western-inspired, rules-based order, a liberal conceit; but this is not their dream. A historic economic rise, technological mastery, a rapidly expanding navy, all causes to be proud of, have freed them to be brazen. Xi now bares the teeth Deng Xiaoping’s smile hid. From South China Sea islets to the New Silk Road’s arid ends, the CCP, ruthless and defiant, pounds the stakes it holds to advance its aims. For Xi’s CCP, it is the fate of small states to bend to the strong.Rules should soon be theirs to set, the CCP believes, and not without some reason. Before Trump, a subtle and experienced Chinese diplomat confessed, CCP leaders marveled at America’s ineffectual response. In the South and East China Seas, on India’s long border, Beijing’s hostile and determined quest had followed Lenin’s line: “Probe with bayonets, if you find mush, you push; if you find steel, you withdraw.” It is to our shame, Trump observed on China’s unfair trade practices, that Beijing had not been held to account by prior administrations. Unanswered, history has shown, the ambitious calculate and, at times, miscalculate.In past American forbearance, CCP leaders have seen a once great power on the wane. In foreign capitals they confided, inside China they proclaimed: It will soon be America’s turn to bend. They claim their own version of the right side of history.The keys to victory, Sun Tzu counseled, lie in knowing your enemy and deceiving them. The cunning men of Beijing have taken heed. They have an instinct for a divided, self-doubting, and weary West. Cloaking their aggressions in ambiguity, they weigh the likely costs against desired gains.Straining to contain COVID-19, President Trump and Secretary Pompeo rightly extend a hand to international, including Chinese, cooperation. But in post-pandemic days to come, the democracies must carefully take the measure of the CCP and hold it to account, crafting strategies for what it is, not what they wish it to be. That is leadership’s task.The late, great professor Fouad Ajami warned, “Men love the troubles they know” -- too ready to slip into a comfortable neglect, too reluctant to face strategic change. Some cite an arc of history, he lamented, to hide behind, hoping it might bear the burdens they would rather shun.With all doubts resolved in their favor, the untouchable leaders of the CCP have much for which to answer. Perhaps in reality, even more.In a time of death, Ajami cautioned: “There is no fated happiness or civility in any land.” As a great river may abruptly rise or fall, “Those gauges on the banks will have to be read and watched with care.”

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Costco to require face coverings for shoppers

Starting Monday, customers will be required to wear masks covering their nose and mouth at all times while inside the store.

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South Korea minister, U.S. sources, say Kim may be sheltering from virus

Fear of the coronavirus could have been keeping North Korean leader Kim Jong Un out of public sight, a South Korean minister and U.S. sources said on Tuesday, following intense speculation and concern as to his whereabouts and health. Under Kim's rule since 2011, North Korea has expanded its arsenal of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, and with no obvious successor, any change in leadership in the secretive, authoritarian state would raise concerns about instability that could impact other North Asian countries and the United States. Speculation about Kim's health erupted after his unprecedented absence from April 15 celebrations to mark the birthday of his late grandfather and North Korea's founder, Kim Il Sung.

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New Model Shows How Deadly Lifting Georgia’s Lockdown May Be

Gov. Brian Kemp’s aggressive scheme to lift Georgia out of COVID-19 lockdown may cost many thousands of lives, according to models prepared by epidemiologists and computer scientists at Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in partnership with The Daily Beast.The findings come as governors across the United States aim to restore economic activity following months of pandemic-related infections and over 50,000 deaths—a number widely understood to be an undercount. Meanwhile, over 26 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in recent weeks, a number that is itself a likely undercount of the economic toll.Georgia’s Kemp has perhaps been the boldest of any governor about moving on, issuing a pair of executive orders allowing fitness centers, tattoo and massage parlors, bowling alleys, and hair salons to reopen last Friday with some mitigation measures. Other businesses, like restaurants and theaters, began opening Monday. The state’s shelter-in-place decree, meanwhile, was slated to expire on Thursday.Those policies are placing Georgians at spectacular risk, the new models found. ‘Dying to Bowl’: Georgia Flirts With Disaster as Lockdown EasesAs of Friday, by official counts in Georgia, at least 871 people statewide had lost their lives to COVID-19. If Georgia had maintained its pre-Friday lockdown policy, the Harvard/MIT team’s simulation—which used data from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and accounts for local demographics and health conditions based on Census and survey data—estimated the state would have logged a total of between 1,004 and 2,922 coronavirus fatalities by June 15. That fatality range, like all such ranges detailed in this article, includes deaths that had already been documented (in this case, 871).By contrast, under Kemp’s current plan to reopen, if approved businesses returned to just 50 percent of their pre-pandemic activity (or “contact”) levels, that range could reach 1,604 to 4,236 deaths. At 100 percent of pre-shutdown activity, the projected final body count could soar to a range between 4,279 and 9,748.Even if employee-on-employee contact returned to just one-quarter of what it was before the disease hit, and interactions among the general public—beginning April 30—reached 20 percent of the old norm, the researchers projected that deaths in the state could hit 3,563.“What we find, no matter what we assume, is that reopening on Monday was just too early,” said Jackson Killian, Ph.D. student at Harvard’s John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, who worked on the models. “If you let people go out and have contact again now, you end up causing deaths that could have been avoided.”Based on the nature and speed of COVID-19’s spread through Georgia, Killian and his team estimated the virus may have arrived in the state as early as Feb. 1, or at least weeks before the first diagnosed cases—a possibility Kemp himself has acknowledged. To be clear, the models cannot prove or verify that the first infection happened on that date, but used it as an assumed start date based on the available information and the spread to date. The governor’s office did not respond to repeated requests for comment for this story.For their part, the team behind the models framed their approach not as an argument for absolutes, but a testament to dire stakes. “The stay-at-home orders cannot go on indefinitely,” said Maimuna Majumder, faculty member at the Computational Health Informatics Program and Harvard Medical School who led the creation of the models in partnership with Milind Tambe, a professor of computer science and director of Harvard’s Center for Research on Computation and Society. Instead, she emphasized the need for a “new normal [that] still allows people to go back to work” and that acknowledges “each of us can make a difference by physically distancing ourselves at, for example, grocery stores.”Turgay Ayer, an associate professor at Georgia Institute of Technology’s School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, recently released a state-by-state COVID-19 simulator with colleagues at Harvard and researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital that he said found results “in line” with the estimations from the Harvard- MIT group.Ayer’s simulator showed that—under minimal restrictions, with no other interventions—there could be up to 20,000 deaths by Aug. 30 in Georgia, but he noted that was a worst-case scenario he didn’t expect to see. That’s because he believes politicians like Kemp will reimplement some restrictions once a resurgence of infections appears.“Once we start to see a second spike in infections in late July and early August, the policymakers will put some of these social distancing measurements back in place,” said Ayer. But the numbers do show one thing very clearly, he said: “If you lift the restriction too soon, a second wave will come, and the damage will be substantial both medically and economically. We don’t want to throw away the sacrifices we have made for weeks now.”The Harvard and MIT modelers working with The Daily Beast also looked at two neighboring states that, like Georgia, were hesitant to implement shutdowns in the first place, and are now mulling their own reopening plans: Florida and Mississippi. The results were similarly alarming.To be sure, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves have been more cautious than Kemp. DeSantis has, so far, mostly kept his state’s social distancing measures in place, while allowing localities to reopen beaches. He has also convened a Re-Open Florida Task Force to present a program for resuscitating commerce in the Sunshine State. The shelter-in-place order in Florida, like that in its neighbor to the north, was scheduled to sunset at month’s end. As of Friday, 987 Florida residents had been identified by the state as having died from COVID-19. Should DeSantis back off plans to reopen businesses and renew his stay-at-home decree through June 15, the Harvard/MIT/Daily Beast model projected his state would witness a total number of deaths as small as 988 or as large as 3,014 due to the virus.But if DeSantis had implemented Kemp’s aggressive reopening policies in recent days, the loss of life might have escalated to a range of 1,273 to 4,106 fatalities in the lowest-contact scenario, or even as high as 15,523 deaths if businesses returned to their pre-COVID-19 levels. DeSantis’ office did not reply to repeated inquiries from The Daily Beast.Reeves, meanwhile, appears to be plotting a course between Kemp’s attempted renaissance and a more prolonged shutdown. The Mississippi governor inked a decree on April 24—by which point 201 of his constituents had been identified as having died of COVID-19-related causes—that will keep the state’s gyms, salons, and theaters mostly closed and continue to limit eateries to take-out and delivery. But it will enable other retail stores to reopen at 50 percent capacity and for elective surgeries to resume. This fiat superseded an earlier shelter-in-place order with a looser “safer at home” policy, which is scheduled to remain in effect through May 11. The group from Harvard and MIT did not have the opportunity to model that new agenda in their simulation.Still, the team determined that had Reeves left his old order in place he could have contained the death toll to a range between 213 and 640 by June 15. Were he instead to have followed Kemp’s lead, the range of deaths might have spiked to between 1,865 to 3,463, assuming Mississippi businesses and patrons returned to their pre-pandemic habits.“There is no higher priority for Governor Reeves than ensuring the health and well-being of all Mississippians,” said a spokeswoman for his office, Renae Eze, noting the virus’ present impact on the state has been substantially less severe than the worst projections. “Thanks to the strategy executed by the governor and our state health officials, our testing is robust, our numbers are low, and our curve is flattening.”Regardless of how credible claims of flattening curves may be when testing remains so scant, the analysis performed by the Harvard and MIT team showed these same governors could have saved many of their constituents had they ordered social distancing sooner. Had Kemp instated his shelter-in-place order on March 23 (when New York City instituted its policy) instead of the date he actually did—April 3—the analysis found his state could have seen as few as 148 COVID-19 deaths by April 24 and possibly no more than 427, far lower than the actual documented count of 871.Likewise, the simulation projected that had DeSantis locked down Florida on March 23 instead of April 3, the tally of fatalities in his state on Friday could have fallen to somewhere between 103 and 376, rather than the actual total of 987. If Reeves had acted on the earlier date, only 36 to 111 Mississippians might have died because of the virus as of April 24, instead of 201.Of course, the Harvard and MIT models—like all such models—has critics. Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, an adjunct professor of epidemiology at the University of California Los Angeles who previously worked for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, acknowledged the analysis and similar simulations “can help policy-makers frame a response.” But he argued such projections “overinterpret the benefit of stay-at-home orders” and underestimate the impact of other factors that go into determining the infection’s reproduction number.“It’s very difficult to input the right assumptions to get a useful outcome,” added Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University and an expert on U.S. readiness for pandemics. “The infectivity of the virus, people following these rules, containment—you don’t really know what you’re dealing with.”Southern Tourist Hotspot Terrified of Post-Lockdown ExplosionStill, Redlener said, it’s too soon to reopen states without enough tests and contact-tracing to keep track of a resurgence of infections. “It’s not responsible of governors to rush into a return to business as usual, even if it’s relatively slow,“ he said. “This is a serious risk. We’re playing with fire.”Tambe, who co-created the models with Majumder and their team, acknowledged they may not map precisely onto reality. Still, he questioned whether the other factors model detractors cited—more diligent hand-washing and mask-wearing—would improve broadly enough in the weeks ahead to have an impact comparable to government orders. And he asserted that the purpose of the simulations was less to provide flawless predictions than to inform elected leaders and health officials as they consider methods to revive sedated economies.“We’re not saying this is the answer,” he said, acknowledging that a permanent lockdown was impracticable. “It’s one in the arsenal of tools that policymakers may employ.”When presented with doubts about the benefits of projecting pandemic death, Ayer—the Georgia Tech modeler—responded by quoting British statistician George E. P. Box, who famously said: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” In an absence of sufficient data to look back on—a real problem for a pandemic experts are still learning about every day—no model will be perfect, Ayer said. But a careful and meticulous one is a much better alternative for policy-makers to “having no models and relying on gut feeling.”The idea, Ayer added, is to look at the dozens of models currently available and see where the similarities lie, what the trends are, and what is likely to happen over time, as opposed to focusing on specific numbers.“A lot of experts have said that lifting restrictions too soon would lead to a second wave, and that’s what a lot of the research has shown,” said Ayer. “All of the modelers are using the best available evidence out there, but our understanding of the disease is evolving over time.”Or as Majumder put it, “A model is only as good as the assumptions we put into it, and when we have a novel pandemic, our knowledge is changing every second.”The models provided for this story were created by Jackson A. Killian, a Ph.D. student at Harvard’s John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Marie Charpignon, a Ph.D. student at MIT's Institute for Data, Systems, and Society; Bryan Wilder, a Ph.D. student at Harvard’s John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Andrew Perrault, a Postdoctoral researcher at Harvard’s Center for Research on Computation and Society; Milind Tambe, Gordon McKay Professor of Computer Science and Director of Harvard’s Center for Research on Computation and Society; and Maimuna S. Majumder, faculty at the Computational Health Informatics Program (CHIP) based out of Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School.Read more at The Daily Beast.Got a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast hereGet our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.

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Apr 29, 2020

Prague mayor under protection after reports of Russian plot

Prague's mayor said on Monday that he was under police protection, but stopped short of confirming Czech media reports that he had been targeted by Russia for removing a statue of a Soviet war hero. Zdenek Hrib clashed with Moscow earlier this month after he oversaw the removal of a controversial Cold War-era statue dedicated to Soviet general Ivan Konev, a move Russian diplomats called an "unfriendly" act of "vandalism by unhinged municipal representatives."

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Supreme Court sidesteps major Second Amendment case, a setback for NRA

The justices ruled that New York City's repeal of gun restrictions rendered the case moot. But other Second Amendment cases are in the pipeline.

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Mitch McConnell wants to prevent a 'blue state bailout' of stimulus money. But Kentucky takes more from the federal government than almost any other state.

Kentucky has a bigger balance than 47 other states from the 2015 fiscal year through 2018, according to the Rockefeller Institute of Government.

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Britain to stockpile non-medical face masks for the public after Nicola Sturgeon advises using scarves

Britain is to stockpile non-medical face masks for people to wear while shopping and on public transport after Nicola Sturgeon recommended the use of t-shirts and scarves. Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office Minister, confirmed that a "domestic effort" has been launched to slow the spread of coronavirus by producing masks that "limit the droplets that each of us might be responsible for". Challenged by Labour's Rachel Reeves to build up a stockpile for the public, he also told the Commons they would not be the "high-spec surgical face masks" required in the NHS but could be used in "particular settings." Whitehall insiders said the Government wants to delay an announcement over its guidance for England on wearing face coverings until enough have been stockpiled. Unlike Ms Sturgeon, they said UK ministers were not happy with telling people to use cloth coverings, which they think "will not do any good at all" at slowing the virus. The announcement came after the Scottish First Minister published official guidance that Scots over the age of two should wear a cloth covering, such as a scarf or t-shirt, in "enclosed spaces" indoors where social distancing is difficult. She cited the examples of shops and public transport. Rather than protecting the wearer, the First Minister said the main benefit was helping prevent asymptomatic carriers who do not realise they have the virus from passing it on. The change ramped up pressure on Boris Johnson to follow suit in England, with Ms Sturgeon stating she assumed that UK ministers had seen the same scientific advice she had. But Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, hit back by telling the daily Downing Street briefing that there was only "weak science" on face masks and "the most important thing" remains social distancing. He was backed by Dame Angela McLean, the Ministry of Defence's chief scientific adviser, who said there is "weak evidence of a small effect" of masks preventing carriers passing on the virus. She said the recommendation from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to UK ministers, which they are considering before coming to a final decision, is "completely clear" on this.

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Watch Live: Hillary Clinton Endorses Joe Biden for President - The New York Times

Watch Live: Hillary Clinton Endorses Joe Biden for President The New York Times
Joe Biden prepares to announce running mate l ABC News ABC News
Tara Reade blasts Hillary Clinton after Biden endorsement: She's 'enabling a sexual predator' Fox News
Oppo dumps and behind-the-scenes lobbying: Biden’s VP search heats up POLITICO
Coronavirus: US reaches one million confirmed cases – live updates The Guardian
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Trump Plans to Sign Executive Order to Prevent Meat Shortage - The New York Times

Trump Plans to Sign Executive Order to Prevent Meat Shortage The New York Times
Trump urges states to 'seriously consider' opening public schools before the summer Daily Mail
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Coronavirus death toll 54% higher in England and Wales than daily stats showed - CNN

Coronavirus death toll 54% higher in England and Wales than daily stats showed CNN
Coronavirus: Care home deaths up as hospital cases fall BBC News
UK care homes death toll rises sharply amid warning 'peak not reached' Channel 4 News
UK on track for one of Europe's worst virus death tolls Reuters
Coronavirus: a third of deaths taking place in care homes - BBC News BBC News
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Apple Maps now shows COVID-19 testing sites across the US - Engadget

Apple Maps now shows COVID-19 testing sites across the US Engadget
Apple adds COVID-19 testing sites to Maps across the US, and shares more mobility data TechCrunch
Apple Maps now displays COVID-19 testing sites in your area AppleInsider
Apple Maps: How to find COVID-19 testing locations on iPhone, iPad, and Mac 9to5Mac
New mobile COVD-19 testing unit will head to Buffalo's East and West sidesIIII WKBW TV | Buffalo, NY
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Tom Brady did not violate NFL rules by visiting Bucs offensive coordinator: report - Fox News

Tom Brady did not violate NFL rules by visiting Bucs offensive coordinator: report Fox News
NFL says Tom Brady's house call to Bucs offensive coordinator didn't violate league rules ESPN
Will NFL's explanation that Tom Brady, Bucs didn't break league rules satisfy opposing teams? Yahoo Sports
Tampa Mayor Jane Castor reached out to Tom Brady with a pun-heavy welcome letter Creative Loafing Tampa
Colin Cowherd Selects His Biggest Winners and Losers of 2020 NFL Offseason Fox Sports Radio
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Australia asks China to explain 'economic coercion' threat in coronavirus row

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Erdogan defends Turkey religious chief's anti-gay sermon

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday defended a top religious official who claimed homosexuality caused diseases, corrupted people and was condemned in Islamic teaching. Ali Erbas, head of a state-funded agency called the Diyanet, which runs mosques and appoints imams, also claimed during his weekly sermon that homosexuality caused HIV. The Ankara bar association of lawyers accused him of inciting hatred against gay people while ignoring child abuse and misogyny.

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Supreme Court Dismisses NYC Gun Rights Case; Conservative Justices Dissent

The Supreme Court on Monday dismissed a case brought by three New York City handgun owners challenging a city regulation that prohibited gun owners from transporting their firearms outside the city.The court agreed to hear the case in December, but the city then amended the regulation to allow gun owners to bring firearms to other locations. The Supreme Court ruled 5-3 in an unsigned opinion that the case was moot because the city had amended its original regulation.Conservative justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, and Neil Gorsuch wrote in their dissent that the case should not have been dismissed."By incorrectly dismissing this case as moot, the Court permits our docket to be manipulated in a way that should not be countenanced," the justices wrote. Lawyers for the plaintiffs had argued that the case should not be dismissed because the city changed its regulation due to fears that the Supreme Court would use the case to restrict broader gun control measures.Gun rights advocates had initially hoped the court's conservative majority would tip the case in their favor."I believe it will change the way the Second Amendment is applied to everyone who owns a gun in the country," Romolo Colantone, a resident of Staten Island and one of the plaintiffs in the case, said in December 2019.

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Hillary Clinton endorses Joe Biden: 'Think of what it would mean if we had a real president'

Hillary Clinton joined former Vice President Joe Biden for a virtual town hall event on Tuesday to officially offer her endorsement.The former secretary of state and Democratic candidate for president was Biden's guest during a live stream on Tuesday focused on the coronavirus pandemic and its effect on women, and Biden introduced Clinton as the "woman who should be president of the United States right now.""Think of what it would mean if we had a real president, not just somebody who plays one on TV, but somebody who gets up every morning worried about the people that he's responsible for leading during this crisis," Clinton said after officially endorsing Biden.Biden, Clinton went on to say, "has been preparing for this moment his entire life," describing her experiences working with him during the Obama administration."I've been not only a colleague of Joe Biden's, I've been a friend, and I can tell you that I wish he were president right now, but I can't wait until he is, if all of us do our part to support the kind of person that we want back in the White House," Clinton said.This is the latest in a series of Democratic endorsements Biden has received since becoming the party's presumptive nominee including from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). As news of the Clinton endorsement broke, President Trump's 2020 campaign manager said in a statement, "There is no greater concentration of Democrat establishment than Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton together. President Trump beat her once and now he'll beat her chosen candidate."More stories from theweek.com Scientists are perplexed by the low rate of coronavirus hospitalizations among smokers. Nicotine may hold the answer. Movies that debut on streaming and not in theaters can be eligible for the Oscars next year How Democrats blew up MeToo

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Ignorance, fear, whispers: North Korean defectors say contacts in the dark about Kim

Defectors from North Korea say many of their relatives and contacts were unaware of the international speculation over leader Kim Jong Un's health or were unwilling to discuss the issue in clandestine calls made from the South. Two defectors told Reuters their relatives in North Korea did not know that Kim has been missing from public view for almost two weeks, said they didn't want to discuss the issue, or abruptly hung up when the supreme leader was mentioned. Kim's health is a state secret in insular North Korea and speculation about him or his family can invite swift retribution.

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Catholic Church angry after Italian government refuses to lift ban on religious services

The Catholic Church in Italy is angry over the government’s refusal to allow the faithful to attend religious services, as the country edges towards a cautious relaxation of coronavirus lockdown rules. Under a new decree announced on Sunday night by the prime minister, businesses, factories and building sites will be allowed to restart on May 4 and people will be allowed out of their homes to exercise. Public parks will be reopened and children will be allowed out for fresh air and exercise, Giuseppe Conte said. But the government said churches and cathedrals would remain closed to congregations because there remained a high risk of the virus being spread. Elderly people are particularly vulnerable to Covid-19 and make up a high proportion of Italy’s dwindling churchgoers. "I understand that freedom of worship is a fundamental people's right," the prime minister said. "I understand your suffering. But we must continue discussing this further with the scientific committee." The Italian Bishops’ Conference accused the government of “arbitrarily” compromising religious freedom. The decree also exposed divisions within the government, with some ministers calling for congregations to be allowed to return to churches. "So, we can safely visit a museum but we can't celebrate a religious service? This decision is incomprehensible. It must be changed," tweeted Elena Bonetti, the equal opportunities minister. Catholic leaders said the Church was working hard to alleviate the suffering of the poor and the marginalised during the coronavirus emergency. “It should be clear to all that the commitment to serving the poor, [which is] so significant in this emergency, stems from a faith that must be nourished at its source, especially the sacramental life”, the bishops’ conference said.

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Trump news: President denies responsibility for people drinking bleach to fight coronavirus as tweetstorm branded ‘indecent and obscene’

As the number of US coronavirus cases climbs above 1 million and the nation's death toll surpasses deaths from the Vietnam War, Donald Trump claims the country is "very close" to testing 5 million people daily, as he continues to pressure states and local governments to begin "reopening" as the economy flounders.The president also suggested during a briefing on Tuesday that states with financial deficits could be forced to give undocumented people in custody over to federal immigration authorities if they want financial relief in the wake of the public health crisis.

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Whitmer Says She and Biden Are Cut From ‘Similar Cloth’

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The US is 'slightly' past its first peak, but expert says the pandemic is far from over

Dr. Tom Inglesby said some states are experiencing a decline in cases, while half of the country is still seeing a rise in daily numbers.

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The EU rewrote a report detailing China's coronavirus 'disinformation' campaign following pressure from Beijing

References to a Chinese campaign of "global disinformation" about the coronavirus were removed before publication.

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North Korea's Kim 'alive and well': Seoul

Conjecture over Kim has grown since his conspicuous no-show at April 15 celebrations for the birthday of his grandfather Kim Il Sung, the North's founder -- the most important day in the country's political calendar. "Our government position is firm," said Moon's special adviser on national security Moon Chung-in, in an interview with CNN on Sunday. "Kim Jong Un is alive and well."

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'Naked concerns': Doctors strip down to protest lack of protective equipment

In one of the photos a doctor holds up a sign which reads in German, “I learned to sew wounds. Why do I now need to know how to sew masks?”

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US was warned of threat from anti-vaxxers in event of pandemic

FBI-connected researchers suggested biggest threat in controlling outbreak was from ‘those who categorically reject vaccination’America’s “anti-vaxxer movement” would pose a threat to national security in the event of a “pandemic with a novel organism”, an FBI-connected non-profit research group warned last year, just months before the global coronavirus pandemic began.In a research paper put out by the little-known in-house journal of InfraGard – a national security group affiliated with the FBI – experts warned the US anti-vaccine movement would also be connected with “social media misinformation and propaganda campaigns” orchestrated by the Russian government.Since the virus hit America, anti-vaccination activists and some sympathetic legislators around the country have led or participated in protests against stay-at-home orders designed to slow the spread of the deadly virus. More than 50,000 people have died in the US.On its website, InfraGard says it is an “FBI-affiliated nonprofit organization dedicated to strengthening national security” with a mission to protect “United States critical infrastructure”. It says it consists of local chapters and that “an FBI special agent from each field office is assigned to serve as a private sector coordinator”.The paper, jointly written by a security consultant and a senior doctor in New York State’s largest hospital network, warned: “The biggest threat in controlling an outbreak comes from those who categorically reject vaccination.”The paper, entitled The Anti-Vaxxers Movement and National Security, was co-written by Dr Mark Jarrett, the chief quality officer, senior vice-president and associate chief medical officer at Northwell Health; and Christine Sublett, a health industry-focused cybersecurity consultant.It lays out a pandemic scenario remarkably similar to the one now afflicting the US along with most of the world, including that “social distancing and isolation have impacts that include loss of manufactured goods, reduced food supply, and other disruptions to the supply chain”.The article then turns to the anti-vaccine movement, arguing that sufficient resistance to vaccination would hobble the chances of reaching herd immunity to a highly infectious pathogen.The paper also says that such movements have received a boost in recent years due to their “alignment with other conspiracy movements including the far right … and social media misinformation and propaganda campaigns by many foreign and domestic actors. Included among these actors is the Internet Research Agency, the Russian government–aligned organization.”Ben Harris-Roxas at the University of New South Wales, an expert on public health, endorsed the epidemiological reasoning in the paper.“Vaccine hesitancy represents a significant threat – not just for any Covid-19 vaccine that might be developed, but also to measures that might assist people and health services now, such as people getting flu vaccinations,” he said.Others expressed concerns about the implications of a paper defining a specific group as a national security threat being published under the imprimatur of the FBI.Michael German, a Brennan Center fellow and former FBI agent and whistleblower, said he was worried about the unintended consequences of defining a group as a national security threat based on their beliefs, and how that might feed into both policy and law enforcement decisions.“You can imagine some young police officer who’s trying to do a good job protecting his or her community. And all of a sudden he’s told that anti-vaxxers are Russian agents.”German added that “the lack of proper government preparation and stockpiles of medical materials to respond to a pandemic was a much more serious problem than the influence of a relatively small group of anti-vaxxers could ever be, but it is hard to argue with the need for a science-based policy approach”.InfraGard has been criticized by civil liberties groups from its origins as a security national entity and links to the FBI. An FBI spokesperson said: “InfraGard is a non-profit organization serving as a public-private partnership among US businesses, individuals, and the FBI.”The spokesperson added, “It is important to distinguish among the statements, views, and comments made by official FBI representatives and InfraGard Members”, and declined further comment.InfraGard Journal’s editor, Dr Ryan Williams, said in a telephone conversation that the journal was peer-reviewed, but received an additional layer of oversight from InfraGard’s board, which includes senior FBI officials and representatives from other partner groups.Dr Jarrett said the paper had been inspired by the experience of the measles outbreak of early 2019, and its predictions were being borne out in the current crisis.“Take the pandemic now,” he said. “If they come out with a vaccine and you have 15% of people saying, ‘I don’t want to take it, I don’t believe in it, it’s going to cause harm’, you’re never going to get up to the level of herd immunity to really shut off the process.”